乌鲁木齐市经济发展与人口及耕地关系的研究

随着乌鲁木齐市社会经济的发展，人地矛盾已成为制约乌鲁木齐市经济发展的一个重要因素。本研究通过建立动态多元回归模型，对乌鲁木齐市经济发展、人口增长、投资增加与耕地资源之间动态变化弹性关系进行了分析，对耕地数量做出了预测，从而为协调经济发展、人口增长与耕地减少之间的矛盾关系提供科学依据。并由此提出，今后我们应加强土地整理、推进节地型经济增长技术对土地的替代，全面实施土地有偿使用制度，提高耕地非农化成本以及对农业结构进行调整的政策建议，以促进乌鲁木齐市耕地资源可持续利用，从而实现人口、耕地与经济可持续发展。

Study on Relationship between Population Land and Economic Development of Urumqi

With the development of Urumqi society and economy, the conflict of the population and land has become an important factor which restricts the economic development of Urumqi.This paper studies and analyses dynamic change and elastic relationship among economic development and population growth and plough resource in Urumqi city through establishing dynamic regression model. Meanwhile,the paper suggests that scientific forecast of the amount of land should be made out in the future which provides scientific basis on harmonizing the conflict among economic development and population growth and plough resource,and puts forward suggestions that we should reinforce soil coordination and carry into land' repay employment system and regulate agricultural structure, thereby advance land sustainable usage and realize sustainable development among population and land and economy.