基于马尔科夫模型的大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化趋势研究

本文通过对大凌河流域2010年、2013年和2016年三期遥感影像进行分类,得到流域土地利用分布现状。对分类结果进行叠加分析可以获得大凌河流域2010~2013年的地类转移概率矩阵,再运用马尔科夫原理预测出2016年流域土地利用分布情况,将其与实际情况对比分析,证明马尔科夫模型适用于大凌河流域未来土地利用/覆被变化趋势的预测。进而本文分别对大凌河流域2019年、2022年和2025年的土地利用情况进行预测,发现未来近10年流域建设用地面积持续增长,变化率为38.96%;农林用地面积从2016年开始减少,总体下降了0.77%;水域面积稳定增长,到2022年之后趋于稳定值,变化率为17.21%;旱地及其他未利用地面积继续缩减,到2019年开始趋于稳定,整体下降了1.71%。研究结果明晰了大凌河流域农林用地和建设用地之间的矛盾,可以为流域水土资源管理有关部门提供科学依据。

Research on Forecast Trend of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Daling River Basin Based on Markov Model

This paper obtained current situation of land use distribution in Daling river basin by classification of remote sensing image in 2010,2013 and 2016.Transition probability matrix of land use type from 2010 to 2013 was got by overlay analysis for the classification results.And then Markov principle was used to predict situation of land use distribution in 2016 and to compare between it and the actual situation.The results proved that Markov model was applicable to trend forecast of future land use and land cover change in the basin.Prediction results of land use situation in the basin in 2019,2022 and 2025 indicated that areas of construction land increased by 38.96％,farming and forestry land decreased by 0.77％ from 2016,waters increased by 17.21％ and would be stable till 2022,dry land and other unused land decreased by 1.71％ and would be stable after 2019.Results indicated that the contradiction between construction land and farming and forestry land,which would serve as scientific basis for water and soil resource management departments.