宁波四明山樱花花期预报模型及检验

该文基于自动气象站逐日平均气温及未来1—30 d智能网格预报数据,应用积温物候模型提取基本温、起算日和活动积温阈值等参数,研究樱花冬季休眠期与活动积温的关系,并建立花期预报模型,对2020年宁波四明山樱花始花期进行预测试验,结果表明:应用研究的花期预报模型预报樱花始花期提前7 d,中樱预测结果较实际观测值偏差3 d,预报准确率有待进一步提高;晚樱预测结果较实际观测值偏差1 d,可用于花期预报和服务。

Forecasting model and test of cherry blossom in Siming Mountain of Ningbo

Based on daily awerage temperature of automatic weather station and National Weather Forecast Database(NWFD)for the future 1—30 days,the accumulated temperature phenology model was applied by extracting the parameters such as the basic temperature,starting date and threshold value of the active accumulated temperature.The relationship between dormant period of oriental cherry in winter and active accumulated temperature was analyzed.Also,the forecasting model of flowering period was established.After the prediction experiment on the initial flowering period of cherry blossom in Ningbo Siming Mountain of in 2020,we found out that the cherry bloomed 7 d in advance through the flowering forecast model,the prediction result of Prunus×yedoensis blossom deviated 3 d from the actual observation value,showing forecast accuracy to be further improved while the prediction result of Cerasus serrulata blossom deviated only 1d from the actual observation value,which could be used for the prediction and service of flowering time.