中国省域环境负荷拐点测算与比较分析

基于中国1991-2009年29个省级区域的工业污染物排放量与人均GDP的数据,利用工业废水、废气、固体排放物等变量与人均GDP拟合全国和各个省（市、自治区）的方程验证环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。研究结果验证了中国的环境库兹涅茨曲线符合倒U型假说,并且大部分省（市、自治区）适合倒U型假说。根据各省（市、自治区）环境负荷的拐点来比较各省（市、自治区）之间的差异和发展情况,描绘了中国现阶段工业污染与经济增长的空间格局,为进一步协调中国经济发展与环境的关系,提出了相应的对策建议。

Estimation and analytical comparison of environmental loaded-inflection points among provincial regions in China

This study bases itself on the data of industrial pollutants and GDP per capita from 29 provinces in China mainland from 1991 to 2009,through comparing industrial disposal varieties（water,gases and solids etc.） with GDP per capita to test the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve for each province and furthermore,the entire nation.The results shows that the national environmental EKCs is corresponding to the inverted u-shaped hypothesis,although each province has its unique features and developments,most of them meet EKC hypothesis.The study aims to compare the different development stages among provinces according to the transition points of the provincial environmental load.Moreover,the current phase of industrial pollution and spatial pattern of environmental-economy in China are illustrated.Accordingly,to perfect the coordinated development of economy with environment in China,some corresponding suggestions are proposed.