未来气候及土地利用变化对水源涵养量的影响

“四水四定”背景下,科学量化变化环境下城镇或小流域未来水源涵养量是水资源管理、水利规划和水生态保护等工作的重要基础。水源涵养量尺度转化是目前生态水文学研究的难点之一,较高精细尺度研究是尺度转化的重要切入点。以秦岭北麓灞河流域为研究区,应用SWAT模型、CA-Markov模型、ArcGIS、RClimDex等分析工具,评估NEX-GDDP-CMIP6高分辨率数据集对灞河流域月流量模拟能力,选取最优气候模式,模拟未来土地利用变化,分析灞河流域未来30年水源涵养量演变趋势,旨在为秦岭生态保护、水资源管理、土地利用保护等提供基础数据。结果表明：(1)NEX-GDDP-CMIP6高分辨率数据集ACCESS-CM2、ACCESS-ESM1-5、CanESM5等9个气候模式对月平均流量均值模拟效果较好,对极端流量模拟效果较差,NESM3气候模式相比其他8个气候模式有较好的流量模拟效果。(2)NESM3气候模式低估极端降水情况,高估持续干燥天数,月尺度降水数据模拟能力高于年尺度和日尺度。(3)通过Kappa系数检验CA-Markov模型在灞河流域土地利用变化方面具有较好的适用性。(4)在土地利用和气候...

Influence of Future Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Conservation

Under the background of four water and four regulations, scientifically quantifying the future water conservation in towns or small basins in a changing environment is an important foundation for water resource management, water conservancy planning and water ecological protection. The scale transformation of water conservation is one of the difficulties in the study of ecological hydrology at present, and the research of higher fine scale is an important entry point of scale transformation. In this paper, taking Bahe River Basin at the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains as the research area, SWAT model, CA-Markov model, ArcGIS and RClimDex were used to evaluate the monthly discharge simulation capability of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 high-resolution dataset, and the optimal climate model was selected to simulate the future land use change. The evolution trend of water conservation in the Bahe River Basin in the next 30 years was analyzed in order to provide basic data for ecological protection, water resource management and land use protection in the Qinling Mountains. The results showed that:(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 high-resolution data sets, such as ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CanESM5, had better simulation effect on the mean monthly flow, but worse simulation effect on extreme flow. NESM3 climate model has better simulation effect than other 8 climate models. (2) NESM3 climate model underestimated the extreme precipitation and overestimated the duration of dry days, and it had higher ability to simulate monthly scale precipitation data than annual and daily scales. (3) Kappa coefficient test showed that CA-Markov model had good applicability in land-use change in the Bahe River Basin. (4) Under the combined background of land use and climate change, water conservation in the Bahe River Basin showed a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2050. The results were of great significance for water resources management in the Bahe River Basin, water conservation and ecological protection in the Qinling Mountains.