泸州龙眼主要气象灾害特征及其与产量的灰色关联分析

泸州是我国最重要的北缘龙眼种植区，泸州龙眼以晚熟闻名于世，但其产量受气象灾害的影响波动大。对泸州1976~2013年多年气象资料和受灾害资料进行了统计，并对气象因子与龙眼产量进行了灰色关联分析。结果表明，干旱发生频率最高，高温灾害发生频率最低，低温冻害和风雹灾发生频率较低，但成灾率最高，龙眼产量损失最大。气象灾害对产量的影响大小顺序为：低温冻害＞风雹灾害＞连阴雨害＞高温日灼＞洪涝灾害＞倒春寒害＞高温冲梢＞干旱灾害。因此，在龙眼生产上要重点预防低温冻害。

Gray Correlation Analysis of Characteristics of Major Meteorological Disasters and Yield of Longan in Luzhou

A s the m ostnorthern m argin oflongan planting area,Luzhou is fam ous forits late-m aturing longan.H ow ever,the yield oflongan is affected significantly by the m eteorologicaldisasters.Through the recording of m eteorologicaldata and historicalcalam ities over three decadesfrom 1976 to 2013 and the grey correlation analysisof m eteorologicalfactorsand longan production,som e conclusionscan be draw n like droughtoccurrence frequency is the highest,high tem perature disasteroccurrence frequency is the low est, low tem perature freeze injury and strong w ind rarely happen but m ostly affecte the yield of longan.A ccording to the size of the influence of yield,the m eteorological disasters in turn are low tem perature freeze injury,strong w ind w ith hail,continuous rain ,high tem perature sunburn,floods,unusually cold spellin early spring, “blunttip” in high tem perature and drought.In conclusion,protective response tow ards low tem perature freeze injury is m ostim portant.