土地利用变化对漓江流域生态服务价值影响

应用Costanza的生态服务价值计算方法,参照中国陆地生态系统单位服务价值系数,分析了土地利用变化对漓江流域生态系统服务功能的影响.漓江流域生态系统服务价值在1991-2006年间减少了14.906 2×10~8元,年平均减少0.993 8×10~8元.生态服务价值系数较高的林地、耕地和水域等转化为生态服务价值系数较低的建设用地和园地,是流域生态服务价值受损的主要原因.流域生态系统9类单项服务价值均呈现下降趋势.尤其是土壤形成与保护、水源涵养、气体调节、生物多样性保护和气候调节等服务价值的损失较大.马尔可夫链模型的预测结果表明:如果保持1991-2006年的土地利用变化趋势,漓江流域生态系统服务价值在未来将呈现不断下降的趋势.敏感性分析表明,生态系统服务价值对价值系数缺乏弹性,研究结果可信.

Effects of Land Use Changes on Eco-Service Value in Lijiang River Basin

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the land use and land cover change on ecosystem services value (ESV) in Lijiang river basin from 1991 to 2006. the methods are based on Costanza's ESV computing formula and Chinese land ecosystem ESV coefficients. The results showed that the total value of ecosystem services of the study area declined from 1.781 749×10~(10) yuan in 1991 to 1. 632 686×10~(10) yuan in 2006, with the net decline of 1. 490 62×10~9 yuan during the 15-year period. The main reason for this decline was the transformation of large areas from woodland, water area and cultivated land to build-up land and garden land which has lower ecosystem service value of unit area. The decline of overall value of the ecosystem services value comes from the de.crease in soil formation and disposition, water conservation, gas regulation, bio-diversity conservation and climate regulation. The results of Eco-Service Value change forecast by using Markov chain showed that the Eco-Service Value will keep decline trend in the future year 2021 and 2036. The sensitivity analysis suggested that these estimates are relatively robust.