Epidemiology theory and disturbance spread on landscapes

Abtract Epidemiology models, modified to include landscape pattern, are used to examine the relative importance of landscape geometry and disturbance dynamics in determining the spatial extent of a disturbance, such as a fire. The models indicate that, except for very small values for the probability of spread, a disturbance tends to propagate to all susceptible sites that can be reached. Therefore, spatial pattern, rather than disturbance dynamic, will ordinarily determine the total extent of a single disturbance event. The models also indicate that a single disturbance will seldom become endemic,i.e., always present on the landscape. However, increasing disturbance frequency can lead to a landscape in which the proportion of susceptible, disturbed, and recovering sites are relatively constant. Research supported by Ecological Research Division, Office of Health and Environmental Research, U.S. Department of Energy under contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Contribution No. 10 to the Sevilleta LTER program. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3812, ORNL.