广西防城港市近55年温度变化特征及突变分析

[目的]分析1955～2009年广西防城港市温度变化特征及突变情况。[方法]以广西防城港市1955～2009年温度实际观测数据为基础,采用线性倾向估计、Mann—Kendall和累积距平法,对近55年该市温度变化特征及突变情况进行了分析。[结果]近55年来防城港市年平均气温变化呈明显上升趋势,与全国温度变化趋势基本一致,夏、秋、冬季的平均气温均具有明显的增温趋势,仅春季增温趋势不明显;防城港市夏季、冬季和全年平均气温均先后在20世纪80年发生了突变,秋季是在20世纪70年代末突变,春季则没有发生突变;冬季从80年代中期开始由偏低阶段过渡到偏高阶段,年平均、春季、夏季、秋季均为90年代中后期才开始由偏低阶段过渡到偏高阶段。[结论]该研究为趋利避害指导农业生产和充分合理利用该地区的气候资源提供决策依据,。

Variation Characteristics and Mutation Analysis of the Temperature in Fangchenggang of Guangxi in Recent 55 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze change characteristics and mutation situation of the temperature in Fangchenggang of Guangxi from 1955 to 2009.[Method] Based on actual temperature observation data in Fangchenggang of Guangxi from 1955 to 2009,by using linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall and accumulative anomaly,change characteristics and mutation situation of the temperature in the city in recent 55 years were analyzed.[Result] Annual average temperature had an obvious rising trend in Fangchenggang in recent 55 years,which was basically consistent with that in whole country.Summer,autumn and winter average temperatures all had obvious warming trends except that the trend in spring.Summer,winter and annual average temperature jumps occurred in the 1980s.Autumn average temperature jump occurred in the end of 1970s while spring had no jump.The situation in winter was that a transition from low stage to high stage happened in the middle period of 1980s,while transitions of the annual average,spring,summer and autumn temperatures from low stage to high stage happened in the middle and later periods of 1990s.[Conclusion] The research provided decision-making basis for going after advantages and avoiding disadvantages,guiding agricultural production and using climate resource in the zone sufficiently and reasonably.