我国林业科技进步贡献率测算

运用"Solow"余值法对我国林业科技进步贡献率进行了计算,得1999～1995、1996～2000、2001～2005、2006～2010年的4个时期的林业科技进步贡献率分别为14.6%、10.7%、13.6%、和37.7%。在这4个时间段中,林业科技进步贡献率从百分之十几上升到百分之三十几,且表现出林业投入明显滞后于产出的基本特征,同时也说明今后的5年、10年林业发挥作用的空间巨大,且呈上升的趋势。认为,如果今后这种趋势不变,而林业总产值也维持年增长5%的速率,再设定从事林业的农村劳动力和山地面积变化较小以及各参数的弹性系数不变,那么到2015年和2050年预计林业科技进步贡献率分别大约为30.3%和34.8%。

Calculation of the Contribution Rate for Scientific and Technological Progress in Chinese Forestry

Based on the Solow complementary method,the contribution rates of scientific and technological progress in traditional forestry were estimated to be 14.6%,10.7%,13.6% and 37.7% respectively in 1991-1995,1996-2000,2001-2005 and 2006-2010.The contribution rate has been greatly improved during the four periods,indicating that the forestry input obviously lagged behind the output,and there is still a great potential and improving trend in the forestry development in the next five and ten years.It is estimated that,if the arising trend maintains unchanged,the total output value of forestry increases at an annual rate of 5%,and the parameters involved in the forestry development,such as,rural labors,mountainous areas,etc.,kept unchanged or changed slightly,the contribution rates of forestry scientific and technological progress in 2015 and 2050 will reach 30.3% and 34.8%.