信阳市气温变化特征及成因分析

通过对信阳1961~2009年气温观测资料统计分析，揭示信阳气候变暖的事实。采用线性回归分析、滑动平均等方法对年季平均气温变化进行了诊断分析，运用非参数检验法（M-K法）对气温年季变化趋势进行了检验。结果表明：①20世纪60年代气温波动较大，60年代末期出现了年均气温最低值，进入70年代年平均气温呈上升趋势，平均增幅约为0.027℃，且达到0.05显著性水平。②年内气温变化存在季节性差异。增温幅度从大到小依次为冬季、秋季和春季。信阳对全球气候变暖的事实做出了积极响应，近49年平均气温增高趋势明显，尤其是近期有加速增高趋势。

Xinyang City Characteristics and Causes of Temperature Change

Xinyang 1961 through 2009,statistical analysis of temperature observations reveal the fact that global warming Xinyang.Linear regression analysis,moving average methods such as monthly mean temperature changes in diagnostic analysis,using non-parametric test （MK method） to the temperature trend in seasonal variation was tested.The results showed that：① In the 1960s,the temperature fluctuations changed amplitude,the late 1960s had the lowest average annual temperature into the 1970s average temperature is rising,the average increase of about 0.027 ℃,and significant at 0.05 level;② seasonal differences in temperature changed during the year.Order of successively decreasing temperature in winter,autumn and spring.Xinyang on the fact that global warming has made a positive response,nearly 49 years the average temperature increasing trend evident,particularly the recent increasing trend is accelerating.