“一带一路”背景下中俄农产品产业内贸易增长潜力分析

为深刻认识“一带一路”战略下中俄农产品贸易潜力，探究制约中俄农产品贸易增长的主要因素，基于2001—2013年UN Comtrade相关数据，对中俄农产品贸易的相似性、互补性和增长潜力进行实证分析。研究发现，市场需求引致效应是中俄农产品贸易增长的首要因素；出口结构效应制约了中国对俄农产品贸易增长，出口竞争力效应阻碍了俄罗斯对中农产品贸易增长。为此，中国可通过加强对俄信息交流、培育规模化农业经营主体等手段调整中国农产品供给结构，同时，中国应建立价格预警机制和预防机制以应对俄罗斯农产品供给价格和质量变动。

Growth Potential of Sino-Russian Agricultural Products Trade Based on the Belt and Road Initiative:An Empirical Analysis with UN Comtrade Data from 2001 to 2013

To deeply know the Sino-Russian trade potential of agricultural products under the Belt and Road initiative and find the main factors affecting the growth of agricultural trade between China and Russia, the similarity, complementarity and growth potential of Sino-Russian trade on agricultural products were analyzed by using Constant Market Share model based on UN Comtrade data from 2001 to 2013. Results showed that market demand was the key factor promoting the growth of agricultural products trade, while export structure restricted the growth of agricultural products trade from China to Russia, and export competitiveness restricted the growth of agricultural product trade from Russia to China. Therefore, China should reinforce information communication and cultivate large-scale agricultural businesses to adjust supply structure of agricultural products. Meanwhile, China should establish early price warning and prevention mechanism to cope with the price and quality changes of Russian agricultural products.