2016年3月青海省强降水天气过程决策气象服务探讨

利用青海省气象局的实时观测数据、决策气象服务产品以及全国灾情直报系统中的灾情数据,分析2016年3月强降水过程的特征及气象服务情况.结果表明,此次过程全省平均降水量创历史同期最高极值,农业区湟源、互助、西宁、湟中、乐都、平安6个地区出现第一场透雨,透雨出现时间较常年提前30~40 d.对此次过程气候预测有所偏差,从短期角度来说对气温的降幅预报仍把握不到位;分析此次强降水过程的气象服务发现,灾害性天气防灾减灾气象服务中预报准确率是核心;上下联动、合作联防是做好预报服务的重要举措;防灾减灾工作规范、有序、运转协调,提高工作效能,能一定程度上弥补预报预测的不足;要实现"社会参与"的气象服务联动机制,赢得社会各界和广大公众对气象部门气象服务工作的理解和支持.

Discussion on the Decision-making Meteorological Service of Qinghai Precipitation Weather Process in March 2016

Based on the real-time observation data of Qinghai Meteorological Bureau, decision-making meteorological service product and disaster data in national disaster reporting system, characteristics of heavy rainfall processes and meteorological services in Mar.2016 were analyzed.The results showed that average precipitation of the whole province reached most extremes at the same period during past years, Huangyuan, Huzhu, Xining, Huangzhong, Ledu, Pingan occurred the first soaking rain, which was earlier than the normal 30-40 d.From the perspective of short-term, temperature drop forecast was still not accurate;based on the meteorological service of the heavy precipitation process, in the meteorological service of disaster prevention and reduction, the accuracy of prediction was the core;cooperation was an important measure in forecast service;standardized, orderly and coordinated disaster prevention and reduction work could improve work efficiency, to a certain extent, make up for the lack of forecast;to achieve the "social participation" meteorological services linkage mechanism, we should win the community and the general public's understand and support to meteorological services.