陕西省榆林市气候变化特征分析

榆林位于生态脆弱区,其气候变化对环境有重要意义。利用陕西省榆林市12个县(区)1980-2006年的气温、降水资料,通过趋势分析、聚类分析对榆林市县域气候变化特征进行了研究,同时探讨了Bp神经网络在时间序列气候预测中的应用。结果表明:榆林市各县(区)气温在波动中上升,除佳县定边增温不明显外,其余各区县增温趋势明显。降水变化特征较复杂,但全市总体呈减少趋势。利用改进的Bp算法在榆林市县域气候预测中取得了良好的效果,气温变化预测的误差在1-7%之间,降水变化预测的误差在10-20%之间。

Climatic change in Yulin,Shanxi Province

In this paper,the climate change in Yulin City,Shaanxi,China ,which consists of 12 counties in 1980-2006 was analyzed using the data of annual mean temperature and precipitation. The methods of tendency and cluster analysis were used to detect the regional characteristics of the 12 counties in Yulin City. And the application of BP network in climate prediction was discussed in this paper. The results were as follows: ①the warming trend of 12 counties in Yulin City was significant. ② The precipitation changes were more complex then temperature changes. The precipitation of some counties kept rising in the past decades while some were decreasing. ③According to cluster analysis,the temperature change in 12 counties of Yulin City could be classified to 4 types and the precipitation change could be classified to 3 types. ④The application of Bp network in climate change prediction received successful results. The error of temperature prediction varied from 1% to 7% and the error of precipitation prediction varied from 10 to 20% .