| 河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘洪兰,白虎志,张俊国.河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(1):146-150. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘洪兰 白虎志 张俊国 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 甘肃省张掖市气象局, 甘肃 张掖 734000;
2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;
3. 张掖中学, 甘肃 张掖 734000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40875046); 中国气象局气候变化专项“西北极端干旱事件个例库及干旱监测指标数据集”(CCSF-09-14)资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用位于河西走廊中部的6个气象站1957-2009年的降水资料,分析近53年降水量年际年代际变化、季节变化、空间变化、各月变化.在分析降水量历史演变的基础上,利用均生函数方法建立了河西走廊中部降水量的预测模型.结果表明:近53年该地区降水量以4.75 mm/10 a的速度在递增,20世纪80-90年代前期降水量出现下降...
|
| 关 键 词： | 降水量 预测模型 空间变化 气温 河西走廊 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-02-09; |
Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years |
| |
| LIU Hong-lan,BAI Hu-zhi,ZHANG Jun-guo.Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(1):146-150. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Hong-lan BAI Hu-zhi ZHANG Jun-guo |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Zhangye Meteorological Bureau, Zhangye 734000, Gansu Province, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
3. Zhangye High School, Zhangye 734000, Gansu Province, China |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes mainly the decadal,annual,seasonal,monthly and spatial changes of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor based on the recent 53-year precipitation data observed by 6 weather stations in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The mean generating function was used to develop the prediction model of precipitation after analyzing the historical evolution of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor. The results show that the annual precipitation was increased by 4.75 mm/10 a in recent 5... |
| |
| Keywords: | precipitation prediction model spatial change temperature Hexi Corridor |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《干旱区研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《干旱区研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
