| 甘南藏族自治州多模型的人口预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵雪雁,刘爱文,李巍,张文婷.甘南藏族自治州多模型的人口预测研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(4):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵雪雁 刘爱文 李巍 张文婷 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;西北大学城市与环境学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金(06XMZ028); 甘肃省社科规划项目; 西北师范大学科研团队项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-20)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 人口是影响区域经济发展非常重要的因素,准确的人口预测为区域规划和决策提供科学依据.以甘肃省甘南藏族自治州为例,分别选取马尔萨斯模型、一元线性回归模型、logistic模型、GM(1,1)模型以及CPPS软件进行人口预测,通过对各模型结果进行比较分析,得出多方案均衡的甘南人口预测值为:2010年将达到71.61万人,20...
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 多模型 甘南藏族自治州 |
Population prediction based on multi-models-Case of Gannan,Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture |
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| ZHAO Xueyan,LIU Aiwen,LI Wei,ZHANG Wenting.Population prediction based on multi-models-Case of Gannan,Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011(4):1-8. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xueyan LIU Aiwen LI Wei ZHANG Wenting |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Xueyan1,LIU Aiwen1,LI Wei1,ZHANG Wenting2(1.The College of Geography and Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,P.R.China,2.The Gollege of Urban and Environment of Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | The population is a very important factor that affects regional economic development.The accurate population prediction provides a scientific basis for regional planning and decision-making.In this study Gannan,Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Gansu Province is taken for an example and the Malthusian model,a linear regression model,logistic model,GM(1,1) model and the CPPS software are used for population prediction.Through the results of a comparative analysis of the various models,it derives multi-solutio... |
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| Keywords: | population prediction multi-model Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture |
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