Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic adaptation of tree species: mean coldest month temperature (MCMT) and an aridity index (AHM). The overlay of the MCMT and AHM for the 1961–1990 period resulted in 63 climate-based zones. Climate change observed over the last three decades has resulted in an increase of + 0.74 °C for MCMT and a shift toward overall drier conditions across Mexico. By the 2050s, MCMT is expected to increase by + 1.7 °C and AHM shifts further towards drier conditions. We recommend moving seed sources from warm, dry locations towards currently wetter and cooler planting sites, to compensate for climate change that has already occurred and is expected to continue for the next decades. We contribute a straight-forward climate-based seed zone system that allows practitioners to match seed procurement regions with planting regions under observed and anticipated climate change. Our transfer recommendations using climate-based zones can be implemented within the existing seed zone system, which often span large climate gradients.