A simulation analysis of crop yield loss due to rust disease

The complex nature of plant disease epidemic makes them well suited to systems simulation studies. This paper reports the initial work performed by the authors in developing a model of cereal rust diseases which is sufficiently flexible to be used over a wide range of host/rust race combinations and climatic conditions. The model is intended for use in: (a) investigating the relationships between components of an epidemic; (b) studying the progress of an epidemic under specified field conditions and (c) predicting crop yield loss as a result of a given epidemic. The general structure of the model is described and then a factorial simulation experiment is discussed. This experiment illustrates the use of the model in studying the effect of four major parameters on the development of a theoretical cereal rust disease epidemic. Results from the experiment are discussed in relation to published empirical data.