斜纹夜蛾发生量预测预报的研究

根据多年斜纹夜蛾灯下虫量、田间虫量、温度、湿度和主害期发生程度调查资料，筛选出5月份以前和6月份灯诱虫量、6月下旬田间虫量、7月份温度和湿度作为预报因子，主害期（8月下旬）田间发生程度为预报量，采用加权列联表分析方法组建了斜纹夜蛾发生量的预测预报模型，该模型回测准确率达100％。对2006年和2007年斜纹夜蛾主害期发生量进行预测，预测结果与田间发生实况相符。

Study on Prediction of Population of Spodoptera litura Fabricius

Based on the population of Spodoptera litura under the trap lamp and in the field,temperature and humidity in large occurrence period for many years,some parameters such as the population under the trap lamp in June and before May,field population in the later of June,temperature and humidity in July were chosen as the predictive factors for predicting the field population in large occurrence period(later of August).With the weighted contingency table,the predictive model was established for predicting the population of S.litura in large occurrence period.The accuracy of this model for testing the historical population in large occurrence period was 100%,and this predictive model was also used to predict the population in large occurrence period in 2006 and 2007,respectively,the results showed the predictive population was coincided with the actual population of S.litura in the field.