Factors affecting forest growth and possible effects of climate change in the Taihang Mountains, northern China

To estimate the possible effects of site factors and climatechange on forest growth in the Taihang Mountains, northern China,we assessed the factors influencing forest growth by using forestinventory data from 712 forest sample plots. Meteorologicaldata from 77 meteorological stations in the region were usedto estimate temperature and precipitation at each site fromelevation and longitude. Analyses showed that temperature, aspect,precipitation and soil thickness all significantly influencedforest growing stock (FGS), i.e. stem volume. When temperaturerose, FGS was reduced, possibly because increasing temperatureincreased evapotranspiration. Precipitation had a positive effecton FGS. The effect of aspect on FGS was perfectly expressedas a cosine function, with south-west- and south-facing slopeshaving the lowest FGS and north-facing slopes having the highest.We developed multifactorial regression models to predict changesin FGS in the Taihang Mountains. Temperature, forest age, forestcover, soil thickness, precipitation and aspect were well relatedto FGS. The effects of a temperature decrease and a precipitationincrease on FGS would be 2.5–8 per cent per degree centigradeand 10 per cent per 100 mm, respectively. The combination oftemperature increase and precipitation changes under futureclimate change is likely to result in a decrease of FGS, thoughthis does not take account the effect of increasing CO₂. Wealso used multifactorial regression models to analyse the effectsof site factors on FGS of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. and Robiniapseudoacacia L., two major species used in afforestation inthe Taihang Mountains. Although site factors had similar effectson FGS, diameter at breast height and tree height of both species,prediction accuracy (regression coefficient) was improved greatlywhen we treated the species separately.