近50年北京春季物候的变化及其对气候变化的响应

分析了北京近50年春季物候的变化规律及其对气候变化的响应，结果显示：（1）北京各种春季物候的多年变化具有相关性、同步性、顺序性；（2）各种春季物候现象出现的早晚与春季月份的气温波动有高度相关，与生长季的积温和年平均气温的相关系数也较高，这说明用物候做农时预报是有科学根据的；（3）用积分回归法作了气温对春季物候影响的统计分析，结果说明不同时期的气温波动对物候的影响系数是变化的；春温波动的影响系数是正的，而且愈近该物候出现期，其影响系数愈大，可以说该时期是这种物候现象的温度敏感期；冬温的影响系数是负的，说明较冷的冬温有利于打破冬季休眠，其值虽然不大，但它的生态意义不可忽略；（4）近50年来，北京春季物候经历了3个周期的早晚振荡，近十几年来北京春季物候持续偏早，特别是近10年，其偏早天数创历史记录，这与北京近年持续的暖冬相一致。现阶段正处于北京春季物候偏早期的峰区，估计未来10多年春季物候仍持续偏早。

Spring phonological Changein Beijing in the Last 50 Years and Its Response to the Climatic Changes

Spring phonological change in Beijing in the last 50 years and its response to the climatic change were analyzed. Results show that (1) Spring phonological change in Beijing has interrelationship, synchronism and sequence regularity. (2) There are high correlation between spring pholological phenomenon and annual mean temperature as well as accumulated temperature in growing season. (3) the integral regression method was used to analyze the relation between temperature factor and spring phenophase in Beijing. The effect of spring temperature on phenophase is most important. At that time, the higher the temperature is, the earlier the phenophase occurs and vice versa. It is a therma sensitive stage on spring phenophase. (4) The temporal variation curve of spring phenophase in Beijing shows that at present spring phenophase in Beijing appears earlier. It is estimated that spring phenophase will appear earlier in the future 10 years.