中国原木进口与木质林产品出口的动态分析

1992-2014年中国木质林产品出口总值增长37.7倍，年均增长率达到17.94%；而原木进口总值增长25.6倍，年均增长率为15.89%。原木进口与木质林产品出口存在相同的增长趋势。文中以原木进口总值和木质林产品出口总值数据为基础建立VECM模型，并通过正交化脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析证明，中国原木进口与林产品出口之间存在正相关关系，原木进口显著推动了中国木质林产品的出口，但原木的供应不足也将制约林产品出口规模的进一步扩大。因此，缓解原木供求矛盾和优化林产品出口结构成为推动林产品贸易健康发展亟待解决的问题。

Analysis of Dynamic Change in China's Log Import and Wooden Products Export

In 1992-2014, the wooden products exports by China increased by 37.7 times, with the annual growth rate at 17.94%, while its imports of logs grew by 25.6 times, and the annual growth rate reached 15.89%, which showed that both log imports and wooden product exports had been increasing. This paper established the VECM model as the foundation by using the total log imports value and the total value of wooden products exports, and adopted the orthogonal impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis to evidence that there was a positive correlation between China''s log imports and wooden products exports, and also indicated that log imports significantly promoted the exports of wooden products, while the insufficient supply of logs would also restrict the further expansion of the scale of wooden product exports. In this sense, to ease the log supply-demand conflicts and optimize the export structure of wooden products would be the problem to be solved in order to promote the healthy development of forest products trade.