本溪市枫红指数预报方法研究

利用本溪市部分景区2015—2016年枫红指数和无人自动站温度、降水、日照等资料,采用相关分析和回归分析等方法,对枫红指数变化进行分析并建立了枫红指数预测模型。结果表明,影响枫叶变色的气象因子中,温度影响最大,日照次之,降水较小;而气温因子中,最低气温影响最大,最高气温影响较小。运用枫红指数预测模型,其模型回代拟合率为68.8%,模型预测正确率为63.5%,模型具有一定的可预测性。

Study on the Forecasting Method of Maple Red Index in Benxi City

Using the maple red index of some scenic spots of Benxi City and temperature, precipitation and sunshine of unmanned automatic station during 2015-2016,the correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to analyze the change of maple red index, and the model of maple red index was established. The results showed that the influence of the meteorological factors on the color change of the maple leaf was the highest,the sunshine was the second, and the precipitation was smaller. In the temperature factor,the lowest temperature had the greatest influence and the maximum temperature had little effect.Using the maple red index prediction model,its back-generation fitting rate of the model was 68.8%,the correctness of the model was 63.5%, and the model had some predictability.