1958-2013年本溪地区雷暴日数变化特征分析

利用1958-2013年本溪地区雷暴天气观测资料,采用线性倾向分析、高斯滤波、M-K突变检验及小波分析方法,对近56年本溪地区雷暴日数变化特征进行了分析.结果表明,近56年本溪地区年雷暴日数呈现显著下降趋势;在年代际尺度上,本溪地区雷暴日数在20世纪60年代中后期和90年代初期较常年偏多,1995年后雷暴日数较常年偏少;本溪地区年雷暴日数56年时间序列没有明显的突变特征,但存在准2~5年、准10年和准30年周期,且准2~5年和准10年周期有随时间增强趋势,振荡周期随时间有所加长.

Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Thunderstorm Days in Benxi Area from 1958 to 2013

Using the observation data of thunderstorms in Benxi area from 1958 to 2013,the characteristics of thunderstorm days in Benxi area in recent 56 years were analyzed by linear trend analysis,Gaussian filter,M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis method.The results showed that the thunderstorms days in Benxi area had decreased significantly in the past 56 years.On the interdecadal scale,the thunderstorm days in Benxi area was higher than that in the mid-1960s and early-1990s,and the thunderstorm days was less than normal after 1995.There were no obvious mutations in the time series of the thunderstorms in Benxi area,but there were quasi-2 to 5 years,quasi-10-year and quasi-30-year cycles,and the quasi-2 to 5 years and quasi-10-year periods had a tendency to increase with time,and the oscillation cycle has lengthened with time.