近37年周村区旱涝特征分析及对农业的影响

利用周村区1979—2015年降水资料,采用降水变率、线性趋势、滑动t检验等现代气候学诊断方法,分析了近37年来周村区降水量的月、季、年际分布特征及变化趋势,运用Z指标分析了周村区旱涝特征及其对农业的影响。结果表明,1979—2015年周村区降水量呈不显著的增加趋势,春、夏、秋季降水量均呈增加趋势,冬季降水量呈略微减少趋势。周村区年降水量主要集中在4—10月,占全年降水量的90%,7月份降水量最多,1月份降水量最少。近37年来周村区偏旱、偏涝年份各11年,正常年份15年。

Characteristics of Drought and Flood and Its Influence on Agriculture in Zhoucun District in Recent 37 Years

Using the precipitation data of Zhoucun District from 1979 to 2015, the month, seasonal and interannual distribution characteristics and changes trend of precipitation in Zhoucun District in recent 37 years were analyzed by using modern climatological diagnosis methods such as precipitation variability, linear trend and sliding t test.Using Z index to analyze the characteristics of drought and flood in Zhoucun District and its influence on agriculture.The results showed that the precipitation increased in Zhoucun District from 1975 to 2015, and the precipitation in spring, summer and autumn showed an increasing trend, and the precipitation in winter showed a slight decrease trend.The annual precipitation in Zhoucun District was mainly concentrated in April to October, accounting for 90% of the annual precipitation, the most precipitation in July, the least precipitation in January.Partial drought and partial floods was 11 years,respectively,normal year was 15 years in Zhoucun District in recent 37 years.