新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究

本研究通过对建国以来新疆植棉业的调查数据进行统计分析, 探究其时序演变规律和空间分布特点,并运用模糊数学理论和层次分析法, 构建植棉规模及其影响因素的交互作用模型, 揭示新疆植棉业发展的适度规模。研究结果表明: (1)1949 年以来, 新疆植棉规模不断扩大, 从1949 年的33.41×10³ hm² 上升到2007 年的1 782.60×10³ hm², 且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性; 三大棉区即南疆棉区、北疆棉区、东疆棉区变化特点各异, 其中南疆棉区起主导作用; 按绿洲分类棉区中, 以塔里木盆地绿洲棉区和西北沿边绿洲棉区变化明显。(2)现有条件下, 整个新疆棉花种植经营适度规模以800×10³~1 000×10³ hm² 为最优, 600×10³~800×10³ hm² 次之,400×10³～600×10³ hm² 再次之, ＞1 000×10³ hm² 最差。该规模标准可作为制定新疆植棉业发展、安排植棉业经济投入和劳动力投入、进一步优化农业产业结构的依据。

Spatio-temporal dynamics and optimal development scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang

Using serial statistical data, this paper discussed the spatio-temporal dynamics of cotton plantation in Xinjiang for the period of 1949~2007. Also by using Fuzzy Theory and AHP method, an optimal interaction model between cotton plantation scale and the influencing factors in Xinjiang was constructed. Bused on the study, cotton acreage in Xinjiang had increased from 33.41×10³ hm² in 1949 to 1 782.60×10³ hm² in 2007. The increase in cotton acreage was mainly characterized by staging and volatility. Temporal dynamics in cotton acreage were different for the main cotton-cultivating areas in South Xinjiang, North Xinjiang and East Xinjiang. South Xinjiang presented the most obvious dynamics with dominant effect on cotton plantation in Xinjiang. Cotton-cultivating area in Xinjiang was divided into four groups according to oasis location. With different temporal dynamics among groups in cotton acreage, obvious dynamics were observed in Tarim River Basin and Northwest Border Oases. Based on the Fuzzy Theory and AHP analyses, the optimal scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang was 800×10³~1 000×10³ hm² per year. Cultivation scales of 600×10³~800×10³ hm² (second place), 400×10³~600×10³ hm² (third place) and >1 000×10³ hm² (last place) were less promising. This was sufficient evidence for choosing a rational scale for cotton production industry in Xinjiang.