改革开放40年来中国渔业产业发展及十四五产量预测

改革开放以来,中国渔业发展取得了巨大成就,在世界粮食安全、社会经济发展等领域做出了重要贡献。认真总结改革开放40年以来取得的成绩,客观分析其产业发展与结构演变过程,预测未来发展趋势,是新时代渔业发展的重要研究课题。本研究根据1978-2017年我国渔业生产统计数据,利用灰色关联对中国渔业发展的不同阶段进行产业结构分析,并建立与比较灰色预测模型GM(1,1),对十四五中国渔业产量进行预测。研究认为,40年来渔业发展可分为五个阶段,即恢复发展期(1978-1984年)、快速发展期(1985-1994年)、扩量发展期(1995-2005年)、稳步发展期(2006-2011年)和转型发展期(2012年以来),每个阶段都有各自发展特点,不同渔业产业对渔业发展都发挥了重要作用。灰色预测模型认为,十四五期间中国渔业总产量稳定在6600-7100万吨,其中近海捕捞在1000-1080万吨,海水养殖为2120-2370万吨,淡水养殖为3040-3260万吨。研究认为,十四五期间中国渔业要坚持生态与渔业协调的发展理念,确立广大渔民的主体地位,制定与发展阶段相匹配的发展政策,建立与产业现状相适应的管理制度,开发与行业需求相适应的新兴技术,为世界渔业发展和生态文明建设做出贡献。

Development of Chinese fishery industry in 40 years of reform and opening up and production forecast in the 14th five-year plan

Since the reform and opening up, China has made great achievements in the development of fisheries, and made important contributions in the food Security, social and economic development and other areas of the world. It is an important research subject of fishery development in the new era to sum up the achievements made since the 40 years of reform and opening-up policy, objectively analyze the industrial development and the structural evolution process, and forecast the future development trend. Based on the statistical data of fishery production in China from 1978 to 2017, this paper analyzes the industrial structure of different stages of fishery development in China by means of grey relationship analysis, and establishes and compares the Grey Forecasting Model GM (1,1) , and forecast fishery production in the 14th five-year plan in China. It is concluded that the development of fishery in the past 40 years can be divided into five stages, namely, recovery development period (1978-1984), rapid development period (1985-1994), expansion development period (1995-2005), steady development period (2006-2011) and transition development period (2012-) , each stage has its own development characteristics, and different fishery industry has played an important role in fishery development. According to the grey forecast model, the total fishery production of China during the period of the 14th five-year plan was stable at 66-71 million tons, including 10-10.8 million tons for offshore fishing, 21.2-23.7 million tons for marine aquaculture and 30.4-32.6 million tons for freshwater aquaculture. The study holds that during the period of the 14th five-year plan, China''s fisheries industry should adhere to the concept of coordinated development of ecology and fisheries, establish the dominant position of the majority of fishermen, formulate development policies that are in line with the development stage, establish management systems that are in line with the current situation of the industry, and develop new and emerging technologies to meet the needs of the industry and contribute to the development of the world''s fisheries and the construction of ecological civilization.