3种数值模式对2008年5～8月辽宁降水预报的天气学检验

为了评估东北区域中尺度数值模式、辽宁中尺度模式和T213模式的降水预报性能,提高预报员使用其产品的能力,根据辽宁出现的不同影响天气系统,对2008年5～8月3个数值模式12h累积降水预报分别进行了天气学检验。检验时效为24、36、48和60h,检验内容包括降水中心强度、中心位置、降水主体强度、位置、范围和移速6个方面。结果表明,3个模式对辽宁降水都有很好的预报能力,但各模式之间存在显著的预报差异,而且因影响天气系统不同预报差异也存在于同一模式内部。

Synoptic Meteorology Verification of Precipitation Forecast of Three NWP Models from May to August 2008 in Liaoning Province

In order to evaluate the precipitation forecast efficiencies of NWP model in Northeast China,NWP model in Liaoning Province and T213 model,and improve the ability to use their forecast products for forecasters,the synoptic verifications of their 12h cumulated precipitation forecasts from May to August 2008 were made,based on the classification of synoptic system in Liaoning Province.The verified contents include intensity and position of precipitation center,intensity,position area and moving velocity of precipitation main body.The results showed that the three models have good forecast performances for precipitation in Liaoning Province,but the forecast abilities are obviously different in different models,and that the forecast differences exist in each model under various synoptic systems.