我国亚热带地区甘蔗产量的模型模拟

应用基于甘蔗生长机理的APSIM-Sugarcane动态模拟模型对南宁一块试验蔗地的甘蔗产量进行动态模拟和验证。结果表明,蔗茎和蔗糖的模拟产量与实测产量分别相差440g/m2和330g/m2,地上部干物重模拟值与实测值的线性回归方程斜率为1.1,决定系数为0.94,说明模型对甘蔗产量的模拟具有较高的准确性。回归模型表明,降水量、太阳辐射和气温的累积量也可精确反映甘蔗产量的动态变化。APSIM-Sugarcane模型的应用可为我国甘蔗产业的精准化管理提供科学依据。

Simulation Model of Sugarcane Yield Using in Subtropical China

APSIM(Agricultural Production System Simulator)-Sugarcane is a process-based simulation model based on physiological mechanisms of sugarcane growth.The model was used to dynamically simulate the yields of a sugarcane field plot in Nanning,Guangxi,and validated with the observed dataset.The differences between the simulated and observed cane yields and sucrose were 440g/m2 and 330g/m2,respectively.Linear fitting of simulated and observed data of the dry weight of above-ground green biomass was close to the 1:1 line and coefficients of determination was highly significant(R2=0.94).As a result,the sugarcane yields were well simulated by using APSIM-Sugarcane.The sugarcane yields were also well simulated by using regression model with accumulation of rainfall,solar radiation and temperature,respectively.APSIM-Sugarcane can offer decision support in precise management in sugarcane production of subtropical China.