中国森林公园旅游发展水平与生态承载力关系分析

文中分别采用旅游发展指数（TDI）和生态足迹法对2003-2017年中国森林公园旅游发展水平和生态承载力进行测度，并对二者进行拟合分析。研究发现，中国森林公园旅游发展水平整体呈逐年上升趋势，部分年度增速有轻微波动，2008，2013，2014，2017年TDI值位于趋势线以下，而2007，2010，2012，2015年TDI值处于趋势线以上。森林公园总生态承载力持续提高，且自2015年以来出现显著大幅提升；人均生态承载力整体呈持续下降态势，但2008和2013年下降趋势减缓，2014年以后连续出现降速减缓，并在2017年实现增长。森林公园生态承载力与旅游发展水平呈高度线性相关关系，人均生态承载力与旅游发展水平呈负相关，总生态承载力与旅游发展水平呈正相关。研究结果表明，近年来中国森林公园旅游发展总体水平和生态效益均有明显提升，但仍不能有效满足迅速增长的旅游市场需求，更面临着品质化和中高端化旅游需求的严峻挑战。发展森林公园旅游应进一步突出可持续发展理念，重新审视保护和开发的界域，完善公共服务体系，健全生态补偿机制，寻找发展新动能。

Research on the Interrelationships Between Tourism Development and Ecological Carrying Capacity in Forest Parks in China

The research measures the tourism development level and ecological carrying capacity of China''s forest parks from 2003 to 2017 using tourism development index (TDI) and ecological footprint (EF) method, and makes fitting analysis of the two factors. The study finds that the overall level of tourism development in China''s forest parks shows an upward trend year by year while some annual growth rates show a slight fluctuation. The TDI values in 2008, 2013, 2014 and 2017 are below the trend line, while those in 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2015 above the trend line. The total ecological carrying capacity of forest parks has continued to rise, and has increased significantly since 2015. The per capita ecological carrying capacity has continued to decline, but the decline slowed down significantly in 2008 and 2013, and has showed consecutive slowdown after 2014 toward the first increase in 2017. The ecological carrying capacity of forest parks is highly linear correlated with the level of tourism development. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is negatively correlated, while the total ecological carrying capacity is positively correlated, with the level of tourism development. The results show that the overall level of tourism development and ecological benefits of China''s forest parks have improved significantly in recent years, but still cannot effectively meet the rapidly growing tourism market demand, and are facing severe challenges of quality and upmarket tourism demand. Forest park tourism should further highlight the concept of sustainability in their development, re-examine the boundaries between protection and development, improve the public service system, improve the ecological compensation mechanism, and find new momentum for development.