1973-2017年藏北高寒牧区主要气象要素变化特征分析

为了分析全球气候变化下藏北高原主要气象要素的变化特征，采用趋势分析、小波分析、突变点分析等研究方法利用逐月站点气象数据分析了1973-2017年藏北高原地区的主要气象要素的多尺度时间变化特征，结果表明：在全球气候变化下藏北高寒牧区的各主要气象要素变化显著，其中气温以0.45 ℃/10 a速率显著的升高，风速以-0.27 m/(s·10 a)速率呈极显著的减小趋势，降水以6.48 mm/10 a速率呈不显著的增加趋势；从季节变化来看春季较为特殊，表现为增温缓慢、风速减幅最大、降水增加最为显著等特点，其它季节在各要素上变化较为均匀；周期变化上在去除显著的全球变暖的线性趋势后气温和降水都存在显著的准3年周期变化，且在发生时域上有互补特征。

The Variation Characteristics of Main Meteorological Elements in the Northern Tibetan Plateau from 1973 to 2017

To analyze the variation characteristics of main meteorological elements in the northern Tibetan Plateau under the global climate change, the trend analysis, wavelet analysis and mutational point analysis were used to study the multi-scale time-varying characteristics of the elements based on the monthly meteorological data. The results showed that: under the global climate change, the major meteorological elements in the study area changed significantly, and the temperature increased significantly at a rate of 0.45°C/10 a, and the wind speed decreased significantly at a rate of -0.27 m/(s·10 a), and the precipitation increased insignificantly at a rate of 6.48 mm/10 a; from the seasonal changes, the spring change was more special, which was characterized by the slowest temperature increase, the largest decrease of wind speed and the most significant increase in precipitation, the other seasons were more uniform in each factor. In the cyclical change, there was a significant quasi-3 period change in temperature and precipitation after removing the linear trend of significant global warming, and there was a complementary feature in the occurrence time domain.