新疆耕地变化及驱动力分析

利用1949~2003年的统计和普查数据,分析探讨了新疆54年来耕地数量变化趋势、变化速度、区域差异及驱动因素。结果表明:新疆耕地数量经历了迅速上升→波动→下降→回升的变化历程;耕地变化区域差异显著;人口增长、经济发展和农业科技进步是影响新疆耕地动态变化的三类主要动因,政策因素是影响耕地变化的间接驱动力;通过模型计算,人类行为对耕地变化的影响尤其显著。并对研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达。研究内容和分析结论对新疆农业可持续发展具有重要意义。

Variation of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Xinjiang

According to statistical and survey data from 1949 to 2003,the trend,speed,regional differences and driving factors of cultivated land in Xinjiang during the last 54 years are analysed.The results indicate:(1)The change of cultivated land experienced such phases as dramatic increase,fluctuation,decrease then increase.(2)From 1949 to 1960 the annual dynamic of cultivated landper person was 4.6%,then decreased as 2% and regional differences of cultivated land were very notable.(3)As a result of the principal component analysis,the eleven driving forces variables affecting cultivated land changes were analyzed which could be classified into three types,i.e.,development of economy,growth of population,advancement in agricultural technology,and the government policies was the indirect forcing.The calculation with models reveal that the artificial factors are the most significant to the change of cultivated lands.The results were described by GIS spatial analysis.The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific base for sustainable agriculture development in Xinjiang.