基于概率的单点腐蚀管道极限内压分析

为了研究单点腐蚀海底管道的极限内压，评估管道的剩余强度，保证管道安全运行，基于前人的研究成果，提出了简化的无限长腐蚀管道极限内压计算公式，并验证了公式的准确性。同时，通过修正将简化的无限长腐蚀管道极限内压公式扩展应用到单点矩形腐蚀管道，并利用以往试验数据对扩展公式进行了验证。结合概率方法，在工程常用的95％保证率下对单点矩形腐蚀管道极限内压进行分析，提出上下边界值。结果表明：所提出的简化公式可以很好地对无限长腐蚀管道极限内压进行预测，同时扩展公式对试验结果的拟合较好，而基于概率得到的上下边界值可以作为单点腐蚀管道极限内压控制的阈值。研究成果具有重要的工程参考价值。（图5，表1，参18）

Probability-based analysis on limit pressure of single point corrosion pipeline

In order to study the limit pressure of single point corrosion subsea pipeline, evaluate its residual strength and ensure its safe running, based on the research results of previous researchers, the paper puts forward the simplified calculation formula of limit pressure of infinite corrosion pipeline, and verifies the accuracy of the formula. At the same time, by modifying, the paper extends the simplified formula to single point rectangular corrosion pipeline, and verifies the accuracy of the formula by using previous experimental data. Combined with probability method, the paper analyzes the limit pressure of single point rectangular corrosion pipeline under a guarantee rate of 95% which is often used in engineering, and gives upper and lower boundary values. The results show that the proposed simplified formula can make good prediction on the limit pressure of infinite corrosion pipeline, and meanwhile, the extended formula can fit the experimental result well, and the upper and lower boundary values obtained based on probability can be used as the threshold controlled by the limit pressure of single point corrosion pipeline. The research result is of great reference value. （5 Figures, 1 Table, 18 References）