基于Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型的彬州市LUCC多情景模拟

土地利用变化多情景模拟可为区域的土地规划、生态城市建设和区域生态环境保护提供科学的参考依据。基于彬州市2009年和2019年土地利用数据,运用GIS软件空间分析功能和土地利用动态模型对研究区土地利用变化进行时空分析,从自然因素和社会经济因素中选取7种驱动因子,用Logistic模型进行回归分析,再运用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,以研究区2009年土地利用为基期,模拟2019年土地利用变化并对预测结果精度验证。最后以2019年为基期数据,在自然发展、生态保护和限制城市过度开发3种情景下,预测了2029年研究区土地利用类型的空间格局。结果表明:研究区10年间的土地利用综合动态度为5.57%,土地利用变化显著; 驱动因子的回归分析通过有效性检验,预测2019年土地利用变化的Kappa系数值为0.761 2,预测结果可信。在自然发展情景下,2029年彬州市建设用地面积增长40.54%,耕地和水域面积分别减少27.31%,3.84%,或对研究区的生态平衡造成威胁; 在生态保护和限制城市过度开发两种情景下,建设用地面积得到控制,水域、耕地等生态用地得到保护,有利于彬州市的可持续发展。

Multi-Scenario Simulation of LUCC in Binzhou City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Coupling Model

The multi-scenario simulation of land use change can provide a scientific reference for regional land planning, ecological city construction and regional ecological environmental protection. Based on the land use data of Binzhou City in 2009 and 2019, the spatial analysis function of GIS software and the dynamic model of land use were used to analyze the land use changes in the study area in time and space. Seven driving factors were selected from natural factors and socio-economic factors for regression analysis using Logistic model, and then the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to simulate the land use change in 2019 and verify the accuracy of the prediction results based on the 2009 land use data in the study area. Finally, based on the basic data of 2019, the spatial pattern of land use types in the study area in 2029 was predicted under the three scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and restriction of urban overdevelopment. The results show that the comprehensive dynamic degree of land use in the study area in the past 10 years was 5.57%, and the land use had changed significantly; the regression analysis of driving factors passed the validity test, and predicted that the Kappa coefficient value of land use change in 2019 was 0.761 2, and the prediction result is credible; under the natural development scenario, the area of construction land in Binzhou City will increase by 40.54% in 2029, and the area of cultivated land and water area will decrease by 27.31% and 3.84%, respectively, which may threaten the ecological balance of the study area; under the two scenarios of ecological protection and restricting urban overdevelopment, the area of construction land is controlled, and the ecological land such as water area and cultivated land is protected, which is conducive to the sustainable development of Binzhou City.