三区空间视角下江汉平原农业空间时空演化及驱动机制分析

为了科学认知江汉平原农业空间时空演化，并为合理开发利用农业空间、推动农业发展结构调整提供依据，基于2010年、2015年、2020年30 m分辨率土地利用数据，利用土地利用转移矩阵、热点分析等方法，以时空维度研究江汉平原农业空间演化特征，并通过地理探测器模型分析了2010—2020年农业空间变化的主要驱动机制。结果表明：(1) 2020年农业空间占江汉平原的82.62%,在2010—2020年期间面积不断降低，共降低447.41 km²,其中耕地面积不断下降而农村建设用地面积则快速增长。(2)农业空间主要转化为城镇空间，共转化391.68 km²,占农业空间转出面积的67.23%。(3)转出空间热点主要在蔡甸、汉川、荆州、沙市等地区，而转入热点主要在京山、当阳、洪湖等地区。(4)驱动因子在各时期解释能力不同，政策因素、第一产业产值、乡村人口、高程是影响力较强的驱动因子，交互作用探测结果主要为非线性增强。综上，2010—2020年江汉平原农业空间在多种因素的驱动作用下面积不断降低，且集中在中心城区附近，应适度调整其减少趋势。

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Agriculture in Jianghan Plain from the Perspective of Three Regions

In order to scientifically understand the spatial and temporal evolution of agricultural space in Jianghan Plain, and provide a basis for rational development and utilization of agricultural space and promote the adjustment of agricultural development structure, based on 30 m resolution land use data in 2010, 2015 and 2020, we applied land-use transfer matrix and hotspot analysis to study the evolution characteristics of agricultural space in Jianghan Plain from the spatial-temporal dimension, and then used geographic detector model to analyze main driving mechanism of agricultural space change from 2010 to 2020. The results show that:(1)agricultural space decreased 447.41 km² between 2010 to 2020 in Jianghan Plain, and it accounted for 82.62% of total land in 2020; the area of cultivated land decreased continuously while the area of rural construction land increased rapidly;(2)agricultural space was mainly transformed into urban space(391.68 km² and accounting for the 67.23% of the transferred agricultural space);(3)the transfer-out mainly distributed in Caidian, Hanchuan, Jingzhou, and Shashi, while the transfer-into mainly distributed in Jingshan, Dangyang, Honghu;(4)the explanatory ability of driving factors varied in different periods, but policy factors, output value of primary industry, rural population and elevation were the driving factors with strong explanatory ability, and the interaction detection results were mainly nonlinear enhancement. In conclusion, driven by various factors, the area of agricultural space in Jianghan Plain had been decreasing from 2010 to 2020, and it concentrated near the central urban area. Therefore, the decreasing trend should be appropriately adjusted.