基于土地利用的滇池流域生态系统服务价值时空分异及影响

为了揭示滇池流域生态系统服务价值的时空演变规律和主要成因,明确生态保护的着力点,通过对1974—2016年多尺度滇池流域土地利用的生态服务价值(ESV)评估测算,采用遥感、GIS技术和可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)结合地理加权回归方法(GWR)分析了1974—2016年5个时期流域ESV时空分异和影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,各尺度ESV时空变化剧烈,流域整体呈ESV降低、聚集趋势。(2)不同栅格单元ESV等级分布变化和空间差异显著,呈滇池北岸和东南部远高于流域四周。(3)滇池流域ESV空间聚集程度呈先略微减弱后持续增强的趋势,整体有增强; 地均生态服务价值(UAESV)从分散到集中,明显受人口、土地城镇化,产业集聚和人类活动干扰。(4)滇池流域UAESV影响最大的是绿化率,人口、人均GDP、第三产业比重、万元GDP能耗和城市化率等有负面影响。综上,高原湖滨区域生态安全格局构建需求强烈,需限制建设用地蔓延扩张,划定国土“三区三线”,加快流域脆弱区生态隔离带建设,严格生态指标监测。

Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Ecosystem Service Value in Dianchi Basin and Its Influencing Factors Based on land Use

In order to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution and its causes, and to define the focus of ecological protection, Dianchi Basin was closely studied as a research object. Based on the estimation of the land use ecological service value(ESV)of the multi-scale Dianchi Lake Basin from 1974 to 2016, RS, GIS technology, methods of ESV accounting, STIRPAT model and GWR were used to calculate the spatio-temporal differentiation and analysis of influencing factors. The results show that:(1)The overall ESV of the basin decreased during the study period, mainly due to construction and human land encroachment on forestland and the watershed area; the change of ESV is affected by the direction of urban development and major policy activities.(2)Areas of high ESV are mainly concentrated near forests and waterways, especially protected forest areas and drinking water sources; ESV in counties, towns and villages show the most drastic changes from 1974 to 2008, mainly affected by the rapid expansion of construction land.(3)The variation of ESV grade distribution and spatial differentiation of various grid cells were significant, 86.38% of the regional ecological service grade decreased, and the ESV spatial aggregation degree decreased slightly at first and then increased continuously, disturbed by urbanisation.(4)The greening rate has the greatest influence on per capita ESV in the Dianchi Basin. Population, per capita GDP, proportion of tertiary industry, energy consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP and urbanisation have negative influence on ESV. Strong demand for the construction of the ecological security pattern in the Plateau Lakeside region, which limits the spread and expansion of construction land, delimits the ‘three zones and three lines' space of the territory, speeds up the construction of ecological isolation zones in vulnerable areas of the Lake Basin, and strictly monitors ecological indicators.