珠三角耕地利用转型的时空演化特征及其影响因素分析

为推进珠三角耕地保护、优化耕地利用格局,将耕地利用转型内涵进一步深化,从结构、效率和功能3个维度构建指标体系,运用熵权法、ArcGIS空间分析和灰色关联分析等方法揭示了珠三角地区耕地利用转型的时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)区域耕地利用形态诊断可以从结构、效率和功能三方面度量;(2)珠三角整体耕地利用综合转型水平呈上升态势,城市间综合转型水平差异明显并呈缩小趋势;(3)珠三角耕地利用综合转型在空间上呈“核心—边缘”分布特征,中心城市转型水平较低;(4)各市在结构、效率和功能转型3个层面的得分具有不均衡性,转型优劣有所差异,其中深圳效率转型指数上升293.12%,广州结构转型指数下降19.76%,中山功能转型指数下降20.69%。(5)城镇化率、人均GDP和人均固定资产投资对耕地利用转型的影响较为显著。综上,珠三角耕地利用朝优化方向转型,但区域间转型差异仍不可忽视。人口和社会因素对珠三角耕地利用转型具有较大的推动作用。

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cultivated Land Use Transition and Its Influence Factors in the Pearl River Delta

In order to promote cultivated land protection and optimize cultivated land utilization pattern in the Pearl River Delta, we further deepened the connotation of cultivated land use transition. Taking the Pearl River Delta city groups as an example, we constructed an index system from three dimensions of structure, efficiency and function. The entropy weight method, ArcGIS spatial analysis and grey correlation analysis were used to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influence factors of cultivated land use transition in 9 cities of the Pearl River Delta. The results show that:(1)the diagnosis of regional cultivated land use transition can be measured from three aspects of structure, efficiency and function;(2)the composite transition level of cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta increased; the difference of the composite transition level among cities was obvious but decreased;(3)the cultivated land use transition level in the Pearl River Delta had a core-periphery structure in space, and the transition level of central cities was low;(4)the scores of cities in the 3 levels of structural, efficiency and functional transition were uneven, with differences in the strengths and weaknesses of transition; the efficiency transition index of Shenzhen increased by 293.12%, the structural transition index of Guangzhou decreased by 19.76%, and the functional transition index of Zhongshan decreased by 20.69%;(5)the urbanization rate, the GDP per capita, and the fixed asset investment per capita had a significant impact on the transition of cultivated land use. In conclusion, the transition of cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta was transforming in the direction of optimization, but the differences in transition between regions could not be ignored. Demographic and social factors played the greater role in promoting the transition of cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta.