延河流域土地利用空间格局模拟对比研究

为探究延河流域土地利用演变规律及未来空间格局分布,基于延河流域1986年、2000年和2010年3期土地利用数据,利用土地利用空间转移动态图及土地利用转移面积矩阵等方法,分析了延河流域1986—2010年土地利用/覆被变化的时空规律; 运用Logistic-CA-Markov模型和MCE-CA-Markov模型分别预测了2030年延河流域土地利用空间格局,并对模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:延河流域1986—2010年耕地降幅最为明显,减少了557.10 km²,主要转为草地、林地和建设用地; 林地和草地面积持续增加,建设用地扩张迅速,分别增加了378.34,136.97,48.17 km²,水域及未利用地面积总体变化不大,生态恢复政策是影响延河流域土地利用变化的主要因子。Logistic-CA-Markov预测得到的2030年延河流域耕地和草地减少明显,建设用地和林地则增幅较大,流域经济发展需求较高,这种情况下应准确把握地区经济发展与资源利用的关系,根据区域特点因地制宜制定适合当地发展的政策。而MCE-CA-Markov预测得到的2030年延河流域耕地、林地、水域及建设用地均有增加,且耕地增幅最明显,这种利用结构表明流域经济发展相对较缓,实现了对流域环境的保护,但应积极探索土地利用新结构,最大限度发挥资源优势,从而实现流域经济与环境的可持续性发展。

Comparative Study on the Simulation of Spatial Patterns of Land Use in the Yanhe River Basin

To explore the law of land use evolution and future spatial pattern distribution in the Yanhe River Basin, based on the three phases of land use data of the Yanhe River Basin in 1986, 2000 and 2010, dynamic maps of land use spatial transfer, and area matrices of land use transition were used to analyse the temporal and spatial patterns of land use/cover change from 1986 to 2010 in the Yanhe River Basin. The Logistic-CA-Markov model and MCE-CA-Markov model were used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the Yanhe River Basin in 2030, and the simulation results were compared and analysed. The results showed that cultivated land decreased obviously in the Yanhe River Basin from 1986 to 2010, with a decrease of 557.10 km², which was mainly converted to grassland, woodland and construction land. The area of woodland and grassland continued to increase, and the construction land expanded rapidly, increasing by 378.34 km², 136.97 km² and 48.17 km², respectively. The overall change of water and unused land area was not significant, and ecological restoration policy was the main factor affecting land use change in the Yanhe River Basin. Logistic-CA-Markov predicted that the cultivated land and grassland in the Yanhe River Basin will decrease obviously in 2030, while the construction land and woodland will increase greatly. This prediction result means that the demands for economic development of the basin are relatively high. In this situation, we should accurately grasp the relationship between regional economic development and resource utilisation, and formulate policies suitable for local development according to regional characteristics and local conditions. MCE-CA-Markov model predicted that the cultivated land, woodland, water area and construction land in the Yanhe River Basin will increase in 2030, and the increase in cultivated land will be the most obvious. This utilisation structure indicates that the economic development of the basin is relatively slow, and the protection of the environment will be realised. However, it is necessary to actively explore new land use structure and maximise resource advantages to fully realise sustainable development of economy and environment in the basin.