内蒙古牧区聚落格局演变及其影响因素分析——以锡林郭勒盟为例

探究锡林郭勒牧区聚落格局的时空演变特征，可为聚落优化布局提供依据。利用影像数据、GIS技术、计量方法及地理探测器模型，通过锡林郭勒牧区聚落格局演变特征及其影响因素的定量分析，探讨了聚落格局演变的主控因子。结果表明：(1) 1980—2018年，牧区聚落数量增加且规模扩大，等级结构虽呈小型化但有向大中型发展的态势，聚落规模空间分布属高值集聚但“冷热点区”分异显著，具“核心增长、边缘收缩”格局。(2)聚落分布呈集聚模式，但属于“大分散、小集中”,具有“南密北疏、东聚西散”的特征，聚落区位演化具低地、缓坡、向阳、多雨、轻风、亲水、草被、近路、避灾及乡镇中心趋向。(3)聚落经历了新增与消减并存的演变过程，并以新生及扩展聚落为多。(4)区位条件、道路交通、人口规模、城镇化、投资强度与经济水平、水草资源是聚落格局演变的主导因素，且随时间演化，社会经济因素的影响程度逐渐增强，自然因素的影响程度不断减弱。综上，锡林郭勒牧区聚落的规模、分布与演变特征时空差异显著，自然因素塑造了聚落的基本格局，社会经济因素是聚落演化的根本动力，差异化推进聚落的空间重构，对改善牧区人居环境具有重要意义。

Analysis on Evolution of Settlement Pattern and Its Influencing Factors in Pastoral Area of Inner Mongolia

The spatial and temporal characteristics of settlement pattern in Xilinguol pastoral area was explored to provide basis for optimizing settlement layout. With the aid of the remote sensing image, GIS technology, metrological method and GeoDetector model, the main factors controlling the evolution of settlement pattern were discussed based on quantitative analysis of the evolution characteristics of settlement pattern in Xilingol pastoral area and its influencing factors. The results showed that:(1)during 1980 to 2018, the number and scale of settlements in pastoral areas increased, the hierarchical structure was small but the developing trend towards large and medium-sized scale; the spatial distribution of settlement scale was high value agglomeration but cold and hot spot difference was remarkable and the core region grew but the periphery region contracted;(2)the settlements distributed in clusters, but they belonged to large dispersion and small concentration and it had the distribution pattern of densely in the south and sparse in the north and agglomeration in the east and dispersion in the west; location evolution of settlement had the trend of lowland, gentle slope, sunny, rainy, light wind, hydrophilic, grass, shortcut, disaster avoidance and town center;(3)the settlements had experienced the evolution process of increasing and decreasing simultaneously, but most of them were new-born and extended settlements;(4)location condition, road traffic, population size, urbanization, investment intensity and economic level were the dominant factors of settlement pattern evolution, and the driving action of the socio-economic factors were increasing while the influence of natural factors are weakening over time. The size, distribution and evolution pattern of the settlement in Xilinguol pastoral area are significantly different in time and space,the natural factors shaped the basic pattern of settlement but the social and economic factors are the fundamental driving force of settlement evolution. It is of great significance to the improve the human settlement environment by the spatial reconstruction promotion of settlements in different ways in pastoral areas.