阿温同城土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响

目的]对快速城镇化区域土地利用及其生态服务价值变化进行模拟与分析,可为阿温同城国土空间规划土地科学利用提供参考。方法]运用ESV估算方法、CA_MCE_MARKOV模型、贡献度测算与分析了2010—2030年阿温同城土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响。结果](1)2010—2030年阿温同城草地、未利用地向其他地类转移,耕地、园地、林地、建设用地扩张明显。ESV增加了129.62亿元,呈“北高、南与西低”分布特征; 水文调节是ESV的主体,水域的转换是影响ESV增减变化的主要因素。(2)ESV高值格网位于北部冰川高山,低值格网位于西部阴干山区及南部绿洲平原; ESV损失冷点区域位于天山生态涵养区北部、城乡发展协调区中部,ESV增值热点区域位于天山生态涵养区北部、城乡发展协调区南部、田园绿洲保育区南部。(3)2020—2030年ESV增值区向阿克苏河流域集中; 延续发展态势会导致城乡发展协调区、田园绿洲保育区ESV出现负增长。结论]以水资源约束为前提,积极开展荒地绿化、加强水体及林草地保护、严格控制建设用地和耕地的增长并引导其内部结构优化,是谋求ESV良性增益、筑牢天山南麓生态安全屏障的有效措施。

Effects of Land Use Change on Ecological Service Value in A-wen Integration Area

Objective]The simulation and analysis of the change of land use and ecological service value in the rapid urbanization area can provide a reference for the scientific land use of land spatial planning in A-wen integration area. Methods] ESV estimation method, CA_ MCE_ Markov model, contribution calculation and analysis were used to examine the impact of land use change in the A-wen City on the value of ecological services from 2010 to 2030. Results](1)From 2010 to 2030, grassland and unused land were transferred to other land types, and cultivated land, garden land, forest land and construction land were expanded significantly. ESV increased by 12.962 billion yuan, showing the distribution characteristics of high in the north, low in the south and low in the west. Hydrological regulation was the main part of ESV, and the conversion of water area was the main factor affecting the increase and decrease of ESV.(2)The high value area of ESV was located in northern mountainous area. The low value area was located in western mountainous area and oasis plain in the south. The cold spot area of ESV loss was located in the north of Tianshan ecological conservation area and the middle of urban-rural development coordination area, while the ESV value-added hot spot areas were located in the north of Tianshan ecological conservation area, the south of urban-rural development coordination area and the south of pastoral oasis conservation area.(3)From 2020 to 2030, the ESV value-added area will concentrated in Aksu River Basin. The continuation of development trend will lead to negative growth of ESV in urban and rural development coordination area and pastoral oasis conservation area. Conclusion] Under the precondition of water resource constraint, afforestation of wasteland, protection of water body and forest and grass land, strict control of urban construction land and cultivated land growth, and guidance of internal structure optimization are the effective measures to seek positive gain of ESV and build a strong ecological security barrier at the southern foot of Tianshan Mountain.