山区产业生态系统适应性与资源环境承载力的时空耦合协调关系——以秦巴山区81个区县为例

为了揭示秦巴山区产业生态系统适应性与资源环境承载力之间的耦合协调关系,基于P-S-R模型、熵权-TOPSIS模型、Pearson相关性指数及耦合协调度模型分析秦巴山区县域2010—2019年产业生态系统适应性及资源环境承载力的时空格局特征,并对两者的相关性及耦合协调关系进行了时空分析。结果表明:(1)山区产业生态系统适应性随时间呈现出先增后降的波动趋势,空间上为整体均匀分布,高值区散点迸发、局部锐减,低值区部分集聚。(2)山区资源环境承载力在时间尺度上先急速上升后缓步下降,在空间尺度上呈现出较为明显的“凹”字型空间结构。(3)山区产业生态系统适应性与资源环境承载力存在较高的相关性但随时间下降; 二者的耦合协调度逐渐提升,空间上表现为“散点初级协调”到“边缘初级协调”的西北向“口袋”型分布态势。秦巴山区产业经济发展初期整体偏低,此时的产业生态系统适应性与资源环境承载力耦合性协调性较弱; 发展后期,交通通达、人口集聚、产业规模逐步提升,资源环境承载力韧性进一步提升,耦合协调性增强。

Spatial-Temporal Coupling Coordination Relationship Between Industrial Ecosystem Adaptability and Resource Environmental Bearing Capacity in County-level Mountain Region

In order to reveal the coupled coordination relationship between the industrial ecosystem adaptability, resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Qinba Mountain Region, the spatial and temporal adaptability of the mountainous industrial ecosystem, resource and environmental carrying capacity within Qinba Mountain counties from 2010 to 2019 were analysed based on P-S-R model, entropy-TOPSIS model, Pearson correlation index and the coupled coordination degree model. The spatiotemporal analysis of the coupling and coordination relationship between the two was conducted. The results show that:(1)The adaptability of mountain industrial ecosystems show a fluctuating trend of increasing then decreasing over time, with an overall uniform distribution in space, scattered bursts and sharp local decreases in high-value areas, and partial clustering in low-value areas;(2)The bearing capacity of mountain resources and the surrounding environment rises sharply, then decreases slowly on a time scale, and shows a more obvious ‘concave' spatial structure on a space scale;(3)The adaptation of the mountain industrial ecosystem, resource and environmental carrying capacity has a high correlation but declines with time; the degree of coupling coordination of the two gradually increases, and the spatial performance is a ‘scattered primary coordination' to a ‘edge primary coordination. The spatial coordination of the two is gradually increasing, and the spatial distribution is from a ‘scattered primary coordination' to a ‘marginal primary coordination' following a northwestern ‘pocket' pattern. The overall industrial economy is in its early stages of development in the Qinba Mountain Region, and the coordination between the adaptability of the industrial ecosystem and the coupling of resources and environmental carrying capacity is weak at this time; in the later stages of development, traffic access, population concentration and the industrial scale has gradually improved, and the resilience of resources and environmental carrying capacity has been increased, and the coupling coordination has been enhanced.