基于气候适宜度预报内蒙古大豆发育期及产量

开展作物发育期及产量预报对农业生产和粮食安全具有重要意义。本文选取1981-2012年大豆生长季 气象数据和发育期资料，结合生理指标，构建大豆气候适宜度模型，建立适用于内蒙古地区的发育期预报模型及以 旬为步长的产量预报模型，并应用2013-2015年资料进行预报检验。基于气候适宜度的大豆各发育期持续天数预 报模型均通过0.01极显著水平，准确率除鼓粒—成熟期稍低外，其余均在90%以上，模型预报精度较高；产量动态 预报模型大部分时段均通过显著性检验，基于气候适宜度法的10个代表站预报平均准确率为87.6%。文章基于气 候适宜度法建立的发育期及产量预报模型均能满足业务服务的需求，可供其他大豆主产区的发育期及产量预报方 法研究借鉴。

Forecast method of growth stage and yield of soybean based on climate suitability in Inner Mongolia

It is of great significance to forecast the growth stage and yield for agricultural production and food security. The observed data, including weather and development stage from 1981 to 2012 during soybean growth season in Inner Mongolia were used to this paper. Based on the physiological characteristics of soybean, the climate suitability model was built, the growth stage and yield forecasting models by step of 10 days were established. At last the forecasting accuracy rates were tested using the data from 2013 to 2015．The model for each growth stage forecasting of soybean passed significance test（P＜0.01）based on climate suitability method, and the average ac? curacy of different stages were more than 90%, except for the stage from filling to mature. It is proved that the growth stage model has high forecasting precision. The model for yield forecasting of soybean passed significance test（P＜0.05）most time, the average accuracy of the actual yield based on climate suitability was 87.6%. The growth stage and yield prediction model has high prediction accuracy and can satisfy the needs of operational servic? es, it also provides reference for forecasting method research of soybean in other soybean areas.