铁岭地区近53年降水变化趋势分析

目的]分析铁岭地区降水变化趋势，为当地农业经济发展提供气候依据。方法]在假定降水量为连续因子的状态下，运用最小二乘法进行一元线性回归拟合，依托Excel程序绘制趋势线和渐近线。结果]铁岭地区降水量呈下降趋势，年总量及生长季减少了60～70mm，春季减少13mm，夏季减少40mm，秋季减少20mm，冬季增加约3mm；1999年之后减少最明显。结论]铁岭地区降水量比较充沛，由于降水量的减少、变率的增大，致使阶段性干旱有所增加，为适应气候的变化应及时调整农业产业结构。

Analysis on Variation Trend of Precipitation of Tieling Area in Recent 53 Years

Objective] The aim was to analyze the variation trend of precipitation in Tieling area and provide climate basis for development of agricultural economy.Method]Under the assumption that precipitation was continuous factor,simple liner regression was made by the least square method.The trendline and asymptote were drawn according to Excel procedure.Results] The precipitation in Tieling area showed a downtrend.The total amount and precipitation in growing seasons decreased by 60 to 70 mm,in which,precipita...