植物病害流行生长模型预测法

本文提出了植物病害预测的生长模型预测法,即利用较早期的病害发展数据,估计病害流行生长模型的有关参数,然后利用这些参数对病害未来的发展水平和发展速率作出预测。利用花生锈病等九个植病系统(包括真菌、细菌和病毒病害)47组流行数据对生长模型预测法进行了917次应用性检验,并用准确度参数P(P=1-abs(-X)/X]×100)作为预测准确度标志,平均准确度为86％。

GROWTH-MODEL FORECASTING METHOD OF PLANT DISEASE EPIDEMICS

A growth-model forecasting method is proposed to be a new method of plant disease forecasting, in which the field data obtained during the early period of the disease development are used to fit a mathematical model (growth-model) which is then used to forecast the disease development in the following period;more data obtained in the following period will be used to correct the parameters of the growth-model and further forecasting will be made again. In the present study, epidemiological data of 47 sets of 9 plant diseases caused by fungi, bacteria or viruses were used to validate the growth-model forecasting method and among all the 917 forecasting tests the mean degree of accuracy was 86%.