气温变化与蒜薹价格波动的经济学分析

在对江苏丰县、沛县蒜薹生产区多年考察的基础上,发现该地气温与蒜薹价格存在密切相关现象.对2004、2006年适时产量与每日价格等数据运用计量分析和比较的方法进行了调查和统计.结果显示,在蒜薹盛产期,气温导致蒜薹产量正向波动,蒜薹短期产量导致价格反向运动.从而导出气温通过作用于产量,最终影响蒜薹价格的结论.据此提出了兴建冷库,增加蒜薹品种以错开收获期等提高蒜农收入的发展对策.

Economic Analysis on Change of Air Temperature and the Fluctuation of Garlic Bolt Price

In observation in garlic bolt growing area of Fengxian and Peixian counties of Jianshu province for many years,It was found that there was a close relation between the air temperature and garlic bolt price.The date of timing yield and daily price etc.in 2004 and 2006 was investigated and analyzed by using computation and comparison methods.Results showed that in full bolt stage of garlic the air temperature caused positive fluctuation of garlic price and the garlic yield in short stage caused the countermove of price.It was concluded that air temperature can finally effect the garlic price through its action on garlic yield.The development countermeasures of building refrigeratory bank,increasing garlic varieties to stagger harvest stage to enhance garlic peasant's income were put forward.