我国水产品需求预测研究

我国水产品总需求包括城乡居民直接消费需求、加工水产品消费需求、净出口贸易需求以及在以上过程中的损耗减重。首先,基于统计年鉴数据,根据水产品供给来源和需求方式关系特征,分离出了我国水产品需求中的损耗减重部分量值及其在水产品总需求中的比例(损耗减重比例)。通过对水产品总需求中的城乡居民直接消费量、加工水产品需求量、贸易量以及损耗减重比例的时间序列数据建立灰色系统预测模型或线性预测模型或组合使用以上两模型,对其各自分别进行了中长期预测,进而得到了我国水产品总需求量的预测结果。由结果可知,"十二五"末我国水产品总需求量将达6 618.41万吨,预计到2030年,我国水产品总需求量将超过9千万吨,但不会高于一亿吨,为当前水平的2～3倍。研究亮点:目前着眼于指导水产品生产的我国水产总需求中长期预测研究还比较匮乏。将水产品总需求构成进行分解,分离出了水产品在各过程中的损耗减重量,通过综合使用灰色系统模型和线性模型预测方法,对需求的各部分分别进行了预测,进而得到了我国水产品总需求量。

Research on aquatic product demand forecasting in China

China’s gross demand for aquatic products includes the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents,net export demand and the weight loss over the process above.Based on the data of the Statistical Yearbook,weight loss part of the value and its proportion of total demand(weight loss ratio) is isolated according to the features in the process of supply and demand of aquatic products.Long term prediction of the gross demand for aquatic products is obtained through building gray system predictive models or linear prediction models or combination models with the time series data of the demand for raw and processed products of urban and rural residents,net export demand and the weight loss.From the results above,China’s total demand for aquatic products will reach 66.1841 million tons at the end of "The Twelfth Five-year plan",more than 90 million tons in 2030,but not more than 100 million tons,2-3 times of the current level.