贵州岩溶生态脆弱区水资源可持续利用研究

根据2005年观测资料，对贵州普定后寨流域上、中、下游地区进行水资源可持续利用评价。采用模糊综合评判作为主要评价方法，确定了评价指标体系建立原则，结合水资源可持续利用的量度需求，将水资源可持续利用指标体系分成3个层次，分别为目标层、准则层和指标层。采用频率统计法、理论分析法和专家咨询法设置、筛选指标，采用特尔斐法和改进层次分析法耦合法确定指标权重（隶属度），划定了评价指标等级，并根据相对隶属度原理，制定隶属函数公式，进而确定评价矩阵，在减少主观性偏差上有了很大进步。通过评价，各区水资源可持续利用度：下游>中游>上游，并且发现脆弱生态环境是制约上游水资源可持续利用的关键因素。最后，结合评价结果，提出贵州岩溶山区（普定后寨流域）水资源开发利用存在问题及可持续利用对策。

Study of water resources sustainable utilization in karstical fragile ecology region

Based on observation data in 2005, the research work mainly focus on the evaluation of water resources sustainable utilization in houzhai drain（higher reaches、middle reaches and lower reaches.）. The fuzzy synthetic judgment was the main method in evaluation model. The principle of erecting evaluation system is established and hierarchy of evaluation system was erected according to measurement demand, including: aim-layer、rule-layer and index-layer. Indexes were filtrated by frequency statistics method、theory analysis method and expert consultation method. Weighting was evaluated by modified Analysis Hierarchy Process. Evaluation index grade was compartmentalized and the evaluation matrix was established according to relative membership grade. The results show that the water resources sustainable degree:、lower reaches>middle reaches> higher reaches, and fragile eco-environment is the key factor which constricts water resources sustainable utilization in higher reaches. In the last, the problems and countermeasures were brought forward according to evaluation results.