河西走廊东部高温天气成因分析及预报研究

利用河西走廊东部武威市5个气象站1971-2005年逐日极端最高气温≥35℃资料,使用数值预报产品,应用诊断预报和统计预报方法,分析了高温天气气候特征、形成原因及预报着眼点。结果表明:河西走廊东部高温天气主要发生在中部平原和北部荒漠地带;西太平洋副热带高压动力抬升、青藏高压热力加强是造成极端高温事件发生的直接原因。并系统分析了高温天气发生的主要环流形势,总结出武威市高温诊断预报指标和高温定量预报方程,开发出高温预报业务系统,投入业务使用,预报效果良好。

Study on Formation Mechanism and Forecast of High Temperature in the Hexi Corridor

In order to improve the, forecast and warning meteorological services and reduce the losses caused by high temperature disaster, this paper analyzes the data of daily extremely high temperature ≥35℃ observed by 5 meteorological stations in Wuwei City in the east Hexi Corridor during the period from 1971 to 2005, and summari-zes the synoptic and climatic characteristics, main formation causes and forecast keys of high temperature events with the products of numerical prediction and the examining and statistical prediction methods. The results show that the high temperature occurs mainly in the central-north plain and the deserts in the east Hexi Corridor. The at-mospheric circulation anomaly caused by the subtropical high over the West Pacific and the Qinghai-Tibetan anticy-clone is the direct cause of high temperature event. The atmospheric circulation of high temperature event is ana-lyzed, the examining prediction indicators and the quantitative prediction equations are summarized for high temper-ature occurrence in Wuwei City, the forecast operational system of high temperature is developed with a fine run-ning effect, and the high temperature weather in the east Hexi Corridor is ideally forecasted.