呼和浩特市紫丁香盛花期预报模式的研究

[目的]建立呼和浩特市紫丁香盛花期的预测模型,为其花期预测提供理论依据。[方法]对呼和浩特市1965~2007年紫丁香物候观测资料及相应气象资料进行逐步回归分析,建立紫丁香盛花期预测模型。[结果]通过回归分析,筛选出影响紫丁香盛花期的4个气象因子。建立的预测模型为:Y=6.674-0.571X2-1.208X8-0.264X15+0.419X17(Y为盛花期距4月20日天数,X2、X8为2月中旬、4月中旬平均温度,X15、X17为3月中旬、4月上旬日照时数)。用所建立的预测模型对1965~2007年紫丁香盛花期进行回测,准确率较高。[结论]影响紫丁香盛花期的主要气象因子是2月中旬4、月中旬平均温度和3月中旬、4月上旬日照时数。所建立的预测模型能准确预测呼和浩特市紫丁香的盛花期。

Prediction Model on Full-bloom Stage of Lilac in Hohhot

[Objective] The study aimed to establish the prediction model on full-bloom stage of lilac in Hohhot and provide the theoretical basis for the prediction of blooming period of lilac.[Method] The observation data of phenology and responded meteorological data of lilac in 1965-2007 in Hohhot was taken to do stepwise regression analysis and establish the prediction model on full-bloom stage of lilac.[Result] Through regression analysis,4 meteorological factors affecting the full-bloom stage of lilac were screened out.The prediction model established in the study was Y=6.674-0.571X2-1.208X8-0.264X15+0.419X17(Y was the days of full-bloom stage apart from April 20,X2 and X8 were the average temperature in middle February and April,X15 and X17 were sunshine hours in middle March and in early April).Using the established prediction model to back predict the full-bloom stage of lilac in 1965-2007,the accuracy was higher.[Conclusion] The main meteorological factors that affected the full-bloom stage of lilac were the average temperature in middle February and April and the sunshine hours in middle March and in early April.The prediction model established in the study could accurately forecast the full-bloom stage of lilac in Hohhot.