气象因子与甘蔗生长的关系及其预测模型的建立

本文通过单因子分析，发现甘蔗新台糖１号的生长发育期内降雨、积温、日照时数的连续累计值与株高生长呈极显著的线性相关。以Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓ方程作为基本模型，经综合分析确定并用Ｍａｒｑｕａｒｄｔ迭代法建立了综合预测模型［Ｈ＝４３９．４５６９０（１－ｅ－０．００００７２３６６Ｐ＋０．０００３４７０９Ｓ－０．００２８１０６Ｔ－０．００７１３１９Ｄ）５．３６３８０］，该模型因其含有时间变量和各参数能作出合理的解释，而对样本资料具有灵活的切合性能和适用性。它既可用于预测，又可用于对生态系统的调控。经对该模型参数和实际资料的进一步分析，得出降雨对株高生长影响最大，其次为积温和日照时数。同时得出土壤含水量每增加１％（基数为１３．０６３４％）相当于降雨量增加３２．５ｍｍ，甘蔗株高每天可增高２ｃｍ。

Relationship between meteorologic factors and the height growth of sugarcane and predict model establishment

The significantly linear relationship between precipitation, temperature, sunshine time and height growth during the development period of sugarcane ROC 1 was approved by using single factor analysis. A comprehensive predict model structure was determined by taking Richards equation as a basic model. Then the model was fitted by using Marquardt iterate [H=439.45690(1-e -0.000072366P+0.00034709S-0.0028106T-0.0071319D ) 5.36380 ]. Because the model includes time variable and its parameters can be made reasonable explanation, it has very high fitting precision and adaptability. The model can apply to both prediction and adjustment and control of sugarcane ecosystem. It can be concluded that the precipitation is the key factor affecting height growth by further analyzing the parameters of the model and and the actual materials. Meanwhile, it can be derived that increasing 1% of soil water content equal to increase 32.5mm of precipitation, the height of sugarcane can increase 2 cm.